Geological Methods in Mineral Exploration and Mining / Roger Marjoribanks

 

"Nadir Toprak Elementleri (NTE) Rezervleri: En İyi 8 Ülke için 2024 yılı Raporu"

Rare Earths Reserves: Top 8 Countries (Updated 2024)

Xuan-Ce Wang

Managing Director/Chief Scientist/Professor at Mineral System and Geology

April 26, 2024

"Nadir Toprak Elementleri (NTE) Rezervleri: En İyi 8 Ülke için 2024 yılı Raporu"

Bu raporda; nadir toprak elementleri (NTE) rezervlerinin küresel dağılımı analiz edilerek, 1 milyon metrik tonu (MT) aşan rezervlere sahip ilk sekiz ülke değerlendirilmektedir. Çin, uluslararası platformda önemli ölçüde etkileyen stratejik politikaları ve pazar etkisi ile hem rezervlerde hem de üretimde lider figür olmaya devam etmektedir. 

Rapor, her ülkenin rezervlerini, üretimini ve potansiyelini gözden geçirerek operasyonel verimlilik, piyasa duyarlılığı ve teknolojik gelişmeler gibi faktörleri ele alıyor. 

Çalışma, temiz enerji ve ileri teknolojilere odaklanan yeni ekonomik çağda nadir toprak elementlerinin kritik rolünü vurgularken, tedarik zinciri belirsizliklerinin yarattığı zorlukların da altını çiziyor.

Introduction

China is the top producer of rare earths and also holds the largest rare earths reserves. Which other countries made the list?

The outlook for rare earths is supported by strong supply and demand fundamentals as the world heads into a new economic era with a focus on clean energy and technological advancements.

But with supply chain worries rising, it’s worth looking at which countries have the highest rare earths reserves. Many of the world’s major rare earths producers have large reserves, but some countries have low rare earths output and high reserves.

Case in point — mines in Brazil produced only 80 metric tons (MT) of rare earth elements in 2023, but the nation’s reserves are tied for third highest in the world. It’s possible that countries like this could become bigger players in the space in the future.

One caveat is that reserves information is unavailable for a few rare earths producers, including Myanmar which took the third spot for rare earths production last year.

Here’s an overview of rare earths reserves by country, with a focus on the eight countries whose reserves are over 1 million MT. Data is taken from the US Geological Survey’s latest report on rare earths.

1. China

Reserves and Production:

China holds the world's largest reserves of rare earth minerals, estimated at 44 million metric tons (MT). In 2023, China led global production with an output of 240,000 MT, reinforcing its position as the dominant player in the rare earth market.

Strategic Reserve Policies:

Despite its abundant reserves, China has taken strategic steps to ensure the longevity of its rare earth resources. In 2012, concerns were raised about the depletion of these reserves, prompting the government to establish both commercial and national stockpiles by 2016. This move aimed to bolster domestic reserves and secure long-term supply.

Regulation of Mining Activities:

China has been actively regulating its rare earth mining sector to curb illegal and environmentally harmful practices. Measures have included closing non-compliant mines and imposing production and export limits. However, these restrictions have gradually relaxed, with mining quotas increasing by over 8% from 2022, marking the sixth consecutive year of growth.

Market Dynamics and International Impact:

China's control over rare earth production and reserves has had significant market implications. A notable instance occurred in 2010 when China reduced its rare earth exports, causing a spike in global prices and an international scramble to secure alternative sources.

Cross-Border Environmental Concerns:

In recent years, China has increased imports of heavy rare earths from Myanmar, a country lacking in reserve data from the US Geological Survey. While China enforces stringent environmental regulations, Myanmar's practices have led to substantial ecological damage, particularly in areas bordering China. The environmental impact has been exacerbated by unregulated mining activities, resulting in deforestation and pollution.

Price Fluctuations and Supply Chain Disruptions:

The rare earth market experienced a significant price increase in early Q3 2023, reaching a 20-month high. This surge coincided with a temporary halt in production in Myanmar, which supplied 38% of China's rare earth imports in the first seven months of 2023. The production stoppage in Myanmar highlighted the fragility of the supply chain and the potential volatility of rare earth prices.

China's rare earth reserves and mining operations are central to the global supply of these critical minerals. The country's efforts to manage its resources and regulate the industry have profound implications for the international market and the environment. As the demand for rare earth elements continues to grow, particularly for green technologies, the need for sustainable and responsible mining practices becomes increasingly important.

2. Vietnam

Reserves and Geographical Distribution:

Vietnam is home to substantial rare earth reserves, estimated at 22 million metric tons (MT). These reserves are strategically located along the northwestern border with China and the eastern coastline. The majority of these valuable minerals are found in primary ore deposits, with a smaller portion in coastal placer deposits. This geographical distribution not only provides Vietnam with a significant resource base but also positions it as a potential key player in the global rare earth market.

Historical Context and Recent Developments:

Historically, Vietnam's rare earth potential remained largely untapped. However, recent shifts in global supply chain dynamics have prompted Vietnam to explore its reserves more actively. The country aims to establish itself as a viable alternative to China's dominance in the rare earth industry.

Production Trends:

Vietnam's production of rare earths was relatively modest at 1,200 MT in 2022, decreasing to 600 MT in 2023. Despite this, Vietnam stands out as the only country outside of China with a vertically integrated rare earth magnet supply chain. This unique position has garnered significant interest from international companies across various sectors, looking to diversify their supply sources away from China.

Key Projects and Market Expansion:

Vietnam has set an ambitious target to produce 2.02 million MT of rare earths by 2030. To achieve this, several key projects have been initiated. Notably, the Dong Pao mine in Lai Chau Province, spanning over 132 hectares, is set to become Vietnam's largest rare earth mine. This project, along with others, is expected to significantly boost Vietnam's output and contribute to the global supply chain.

Challenges and Setbacks:

The recent arrests of six executives from Vietnam Rare Earth JSC (VTRE), including the chairman, have raised concerns about the impact on Vietnam's rare earth ambitions. The allegations of forging value-added-tax receipts in trading rare earths have cast a shadow over the industry's governance and could potentially hinder progress towards the 2030 production goal.

Market Dynamics:

Vietnam's rare earth industry is poised for growth, with the country's output increasing tenfold in recent years. This surge in production reflects the growing global demand for rare earth elements, essential for high-tech products, electric vehicles (EVs), and renewable energy technologies. As firms seek to reduce reliance on China, Vietnam's role in the rare earth market is becoming increasingly significant.

Vietnam's rare earth reserves and industry are at a critical juncture. With vast untapped resources, key projects underway, and a clear market demand, Vietnam has the potential to transform into a major rare earth producer. However, it must navigate the challenges of industry governance and international market dynamics to realize its full potential and meet its ambitious production targets.

3. Brazil

Reserves: Brazil holds the third-largest, rare earth reserves globally, with an estimated 21 million metric tons (MT). Despite this significant reserve, Brazil's production remained low at 80 MT in 2023, which was consistent with the previous year and a decrease from the 500 MT produced in 2021.

Key Projects: A notable development is the commencement of commercial production by Serra Verde at the Pela Ema rare earths deposit in early 2024. Pela Ema is an ionic clay deposit expected to produce critical magnet rare earth elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, terbium, and dysprosium. This project positions Brazil as a significant player outside China in the production of these four essential magnet rare earths.

Market Analysis: The entry of Serra Verde into commercial production is poised to change Brazil's standing in the global rare earth market. With the Pela Ema deposit's potential, Brazil could significantly increase its production capacity and contribute to diversifying the global supply chain currently dominated by China.

4. Russia

Reserves: Russia has 10 million MT of rare earth reserves. In 2023, it produced 2,600 MT of rare earths, surpassing the output of both Brazil and Vietnam.

Investment Plans: The Russian government announced plans in 2020 to invest approximately US$1.5 billion to compete with China in the rare earths market. These investments aimed to boost Russia's share of global rare earth production.

Supply Chain Concerns: The invasion of Ukraine by Russia raised concerns about potential disruptions in the rare earths supply chain, particularly for the US and Europe. There are indications that Russia's domestic rare earth sector development plans have been stalled due to the ongoing conflict.

5. India

Reserves: India's rare earth reserves are estimated at 6.9 million MT. The country produced 2,900 MT of rare earths in 2023, maintaining the production level of the previous year.

Production and Refining: India has established facilities for mining, separation, and refining rare earths in oxide form and has developed capabilities for metal extraction. However, further industrial-scale facilities for alloys, magnets, etc., are yet to be developed.

Market Analysis: The Indian market for rare earths is expected to grow, driven by the demand for renewable energy sources, consumer electronics, and the automotive sector.

Research and Development Policies: The Government of India is reportedly implementing policies and legislation to support rare earths research and development projects, leveraging the country's substantial reserve base to enhance its position in the global market.

6. Australia

Reserves: 5.7 million MT

Australia, ranking as the fourth-largest rare earth mining country in 2023 with a production of 18,000 MT, holds the sixth-largest reserves globally at 5.7 million MT. Rare earth mining in Australia began in 2007, and there is an expectation for increased extraction in the future.

Key Projects:

- Lynas Rare Earths: Operates the Mount Weld mine and concentration plant within Australia, alongside a refining and processing facility in Malaysia. Lynas is recognized as the largest non-Chinese rare earths supplier in the world.

- Hastings Technology Metals: Their Yangibana rare earths mine is ready for operation, and the company has secured an off-take agreement with Baotou Sky Rock for the mine's concentrates. Hastings anticipates producing up to 37,000 MT of rare earths concentrate annually, with the first delivery expected in Q2 2025.

Market Analysis:

Australia's rare earth market is poised for growth, with significant deposits like those in South Australia potentially positioning the country as a leading producer outside of China. The market conditions, however, could present challenges for investors.

7. United States

Reserves: 1.8 million MT

The US, with the second-highest output of rare earths in 2023 at 43,000 MT, ranks seventh in global reserves. Currently, the Mountain Pass mine in California is the sole operational rare earth mine in the US.

Industry Initiatives:

- The Biden Administration has been proactive in bolstering the nation's rare earth industry. In February 2021, an executive order was signed to review supply chain shortcomings.

- The US Department of Energy launched a $30 million initiative to research and secure domestic supply chains for rare earths and other critical battery metals in March 2021.

- A $32 million investment was announced in July 2023 for new rare earth production facilities.

The US is actively working to reduce reliance on imported materials and strengthen its position in the rare earths market, which is crucial for the manufacturing of batteries, magnets, and components vital to the clean energy economy.

8. Greenland

Reserves: 1.5 million MT

Greenland holds significant rare earth reserves, estimated at 1.5 million metric tons (MT), which is comparable to the reserves of the United States. However, Greenland does not currently produce rare earth metals. The island nation is home to two major rare earth projects with substantial reserves: Tanbreez Mining's Tanbreez project and Energy Transition Minerals' Kvanefjeld project. When considering total reserves for rare earth projects globally, these two projects rank first and third, respectively, with 28.2 and 10.2 million MT of total rare earth oxides.

Tanbreez Project:

- Reserves: Tanbreez project is reported to have significant reserves, with a high proportion of heavy rare earths, which are crucial for various technologies.

- Development: After obtaining an exploitation license in 2020, Tanbreez is actively seeking financing to develop the project. The company is exploring innovative funding methods, including discussions with oil and gas executives and the creation of critical metals NFTs.

- Production Timeline: Tanbreez aims to commence production by 2024, which could position Greenland as a key supplier of rare earths to North America.

Kvanefjeld Project:

- Reserves: Kvanefjeld is one of the world's largest undeveloped rare earth deposits, with substantial reserves of critical rare earth elements.

- License Issues: Energy Transition Minerals faced a setback when its exploitation license was revoked by the Greenland government due to plans to extract uranium. Despite submitting an amended plan excluding uranium, the proposal was rejected in September 2023.

- Current Status: The company has filed a Statement of Claim with an arbitral tribunal in Copenhagen, disputing the government's decision and seeking to advance the project.

Market Dynamics:

Greenland's rare earth reserves are strategically important due to their size and the critical nature of the elements they contain. The development of these projects could significantly impact the global rare earth supply chain, offering an alternative source to the current market dominated by China. The geopolitical interest in Greenland's resources, particularly from nations seeking to diversify their rare earth sources, underscores the potential of these projects to alter the balance of rare earth production globally.

Greenland stands at the cusp of becoming a significant player in the rare earth market with its large-scale projects. The successful development of the Tanbreez and Kvanefjeld projects could transform the island into a major supplier, particularly for North American markets. However, regulatory challenges and the need for sustainable development practices remain critical factors that will shape Greenland's future in the rare earth industry.

Conclusion:

As the global demand for rare earth elements surges due to advancements in technology and a shift towards green energy, the delineation of reserves in the top eight countries is poised to reshape the market landscape. The report underscores China's predominance, while Vietnam, Brazil, Russia, India, Australia, the United States, and Greenland exhibit varying degrees of potential to influence the supply chain and market dynamics. The outlined statistics and trends serve as a strategic guide for investors and policymakers, indicating the importance of diversifying sources and reinforcing sustainable practices within the rare earth sector. It is imperative to continue monitoring these developments as the industry navigates geopolitical intricacies and strives towards a balanced and resilient supply chain.

KAYNAK

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/rare-earths-reserves-top-8-countries-updated-2024-xuan-ce-wang-mcetc/